I think far more relevant is when do the cost declines in the TIC flatten. Now that panels are only a small fraction of total cost, things like labour, supports, wires, inverters etc become far more relevant to the actual costs, and we have far less reason to expect the same sorts of learning rates as factory produced modules.
We are seeing the same in grid battery systems, where cell proces are dropping quickly, but announced projects are stubbornly high.
I think these comments are spot-on. There are several theoretical works that argue that a better model for learning curves is that a technology should be decomposed into several subsystems, each with its own learning rate. The overall learning rate tends to converge to the learning rate of whichever subsystems improves the most slowly, as the costs of those subsystems become dominant. It is very analogous to the Baumol effect.
I think far more relevant is when do the cost declines in the TIC flatten. Now that panels are only a small fraction of total cost, things like labour, supports, wires, inverters etc become far more relevant to the actual costs, and we have far less reason to expect the same sorts of learning rates as factory produced modules.
We are seeing the same in grid battery systems, where cell proces are dropping quickly, but announced projects are stubbornly high.
I think these comments are spot-on. There are several theoretical works that argue that a better model for learning curves is that a technology should be decomposed into several subsystems, each with its own learning rate. The overall learning rate tends to converge to the learning rate of whichever subsystems improves the most slowly, as the costs of those subsystems become dominant. It is very analogous to the Baumol effect.